Historical mapping of malaria Africa-wide

Together with Prof. Abdisalan Noor and Prof. Robert Snow from the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI) in Nairobi, Kenya, we are investigating the spatio-temporal trends of malaria in Africa over a period of 100 years. The study is based on data from multiple prevalence surveys conducted in malaria-endemic African countries from 1915 to 2014. The statistical analysis of the data presents many challenges, such as variation in data-quality and temporal sparsity. We are developing novel geostatistical methods that can make the best possible use of the data whilst accounting for the main sources of spatio-temporal variation.

The project is supported by an MRC Fellowship in Biostatistics awarded to Emanuele Giorgi. One of the outputs of the project will be the delivery of an interactive web-based animation showing the predicted malaria prevalence, with other relevant summaries, across Africa.