Alder Hey Hospital Prediction

Web site showing forecasted admissions with prediction intervals

Alder Hey Children's Hospital's existing method for forecasting admissions was based on admission counts in previous years - a bit like trying to predict tomorrow's weather based on the weather a year ago. We know it will be roughly right, but won't recognise that we have "hot spells" or "cold spells" of weather away from the norm that last a few days. Similarly, but for unknown reasons, admission numbers show fluctuations away from the simple forecast model the hospital was using.

We constructed a statistical forecasting system that uses the historical data to get the average behaviour and modulates its predictions based on recent data, producing forecasts that are more accurate and have an associated measure of precision.

The daily predictions are delivered via an interactive web site accessible to hospital staff only. You can view the demo site which uses simulated data only.