Geostatistical Modelling for Trachoma Elimination

Trachoma is the most common infectious cause of blindness worldwide, affecting the most deprived and marginalised communities. Concerted efforts are being made for the global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by the year 2030. As a World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, CHICAS provides support in the design and analysis of trachoma prevalence surveys, closely coordinating with WHO, health ministries, and other partner organizations and academic institutions.

We use model-based geostatistics to:

• Identify the most efficient sampling strategy in the country-specific contexts including resource and data availability and intervention histories
• Predict trachoma prevalence with greater precision than the standard trachoma prevalence survey approach
• Provide probability statements, specifically, the likelihood of having achieved the elimination target